Pennington Vs. Pena Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Bantamweight champions Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena will collide this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at UFC 307 inside Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

It’s far from the most interesting title fight in 135-pound history, but there is a backstory here. The two competed on the same season of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) over a decade ago now with Pena taking the title and Pennington coming up short as a semi-finalist. Since then, Pennington has been the more consistently successful fighter, but “The Venezuelan Vixen” became the only woman to dethrone Amanda Nunes … even if she gave that title right back in the rematch.

All in all, it’s both odd and unlikely that these two haven’t somehow fought before either in the TUF house or in their shared 11 years on the roster. It’s not like there are are a lot of women’s Bantamweights crowding the roster! Ultimately, perhaps its best they never met in the cage, because the match up was reserved for the highest possible stakes.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pennington vs. Pena Betting Odds

Raquel Pennington victory: -170
Raquel Pennington via TKO/KO/DQ: +2000
Raquel Pennington via submission: +450
Raquel Pennington via decision: +100
Julianna Pena victory: +142
Julianna Pena via TKO/KO/DQ: +1200
Julianna Pena via submission: +650
Julianna Pena via decision: +275
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pennington Wins

“Rocky” definitely has sharper, more consistent boxing than most of her peers. She’s not a fearsome knockout artist, but she lands with enough snap to earn her opponent’s respect and consistently pushes a solid pace.

In many ways, we’re talking about similar fighters here. Pennington and Pena both win fights via grit and conditioning more often than not. The difference is that Pena usually does so on the floor — her hands are truly awful — whereas Pennington outworks her opponent in the pocket.

Pennington knows how to wrestle fortunately, and she also has underrated front chokes. Given Pena’s penchant for getting herself submitted while pushing a pace, I’d like to see Pennington threatening those chokes early on when her opponent tries to change levels. She needs to put a bit of fear in Pena’s mind and convince her to spend more time upright.

Otherwise, the body jab feels like a great weapon for Pena. It should help keep the wrestling off her, as well as serve as a great setup for her right hand.

How Pena Wins

Pena is a gutsy fighter. Her game has never really evolved beyond athleticism and wrestling, but she has the toughness and cardio to make difficult fights even for the likes of Amanda Nunes.

At 35 years of age, it feels unrealistic to expect sudden technical development from Pena after a decade of stagnancy. Likely, she does the same thing she always does: throw ugly punches erratically, push Pena into the fence, and then chain wrestle into top position. On its own, that might work, because Pena is the stronger woman and more accomplished wrestler.

Yet, this would be a great match up for just a bit of game planning. As Pena brought the dipping jab into her scrap with Nunes, perhaps she could bring the calf kick into this title fight? It’s not a hard strike to throw, and Pena’s lead leg is permanently vulnerable to the strike. If Pena could steal away some of Pennington’s comfort in the pocket, it would go a long way in creating more control time for the challenger.

Pennington vs. Pena Prediction

I really don’t have strong feelings about this fight. It should be scrappy and reasonably entertaining, but it doesn’t feel like there’s anywhere that either woman can dominate. Pena could pick up some rounds from top position, but she’s unlikely to submit Pennington or really rough her up. Conversely, Pennington could touch up her opponent with some jabs and 1-2s, but Pena went 25 minutes with a vengeful “Lioness” and was still swinging.

It really comes down to whether or not you trust Pena’s athleticism or Pennington’s boxing skill. Neither impress me terribly, so the better bet feels like siding with the woman who has actually won more than two fights since 2020.

Prediction: Pennington via decision (+100)