Johnson Vs. Zellhuber Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight sluggers Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber will go to war this weekend (Sat., July 19, 2025) at UFC 318 inside Smooth King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Recent results have served as proof that “The Menace” has still got it! On my scorecard, the famously inconsistent knockout artist has won five of his last six (the judges wrongly went against him in the Jamie Mullarkey bout). At 39 years of age, he’s still throwing down with young talent and putting on the hurt.

Zellhuber, conversely, is coming off a “Fight of the Year” worthy defeat to Esteban Ribovics last year at Noche UFC. Prior to that exciting defeat, the 26-year-old prospect had won three straight and picked up several performance bonuses, very much looking the part of a future contender.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC: Zellhuber v Ribovics

Johnson vs. Zellhuber Betting Odds

Michael Johnson victory: +380
Michael Johnson via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Michael Johnson via submission: TBD
Michael Johnson via decision: TBD
Daniel Zellhuber victory: -500
Daniel Zellhuber via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Daniel Zellhuber via submission: TBD
Daniel Zellhuber via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Johnson Wins

Michael Johnson has been there and done that. For well over a decade now, the Southpaw slugger has stood toe-to-toe with the best Lightweight has to offer. His win/loss ratio may not be the prettiest, but he nevertheless has an incredible resume of excellent wins and tough opposition.

Reminder: we’re talking about a man who beat excellent versions of Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza.

Speaking of Barboza, it’s time to return to that game plan. Opposite the outstanding kicker, Johnson relentlessly pressured and employed the “first and third” strategy to great effect. He would initiate his combination, slip/block/absorb whatever Barboza threw back at him, and then fire again. This pace exhausted Barboza and slowed his reactions, allowing Johnson to get inside the kicking range and tee off.

Against the rangy Zellhuber, he’ll have to employ similar tactics. He’s not going to win this fight by standing around at distance getting kicked, so it’s up to the veteran to seize the initiative and make an upset happen.

How Zellhuber Wins

At 6’1” with a 77” reach, Zellhuber is one of the larger Lightweights on the roster. Better yet, he knows how to use that size, having built up a nice kickboxing game that breaks opponents down with long kicks, close range elbows, straight punches, and accurate counter shots.

He’s stopped 10 foes via knockout or submission.

Zellhuber fought really well for much of the Ribovics loss. He controlled range and punished his foe’s entrances often, it’s just that Ribovics was tough as nails and kept throwing anyway, eventually evening the score. Johnson, 17 years into his professional career, is unlikely to have that same durability.

Zellhuber is at his best when kicking and jabbing, forcing his foe to walk through fire. If he can keep a high volume of long range output, he should be able to time a counter sooner than later.

Catch Johnson mid-punch with a straight of his own, and Zellhuber will be right back in the win column.

Johnson vs. Zellhuber Prediction

I have very much enjoyed Johnson’s recent resurgence. He was looking rather rough during the four-fight losing streak that culminated in a decision defeat to Clay Guida in 2021, but his work since then has been genuinely good. He’s focused in the cage, playing to his strengths, and avoiding silly mistakes.

Unfortunately, I also have to admit that he hasn’t beaten anyone as talented as Zellhuber in many years now. For Johnson to take this win consistently, a full-on Robbie Lawler-esque career renaissance would be required, and one fighter out of every 1000 pulls that off.

“The Menace” will always have a chance given his power, but the odds are against him.

Prediction: Zellhuber via decision