Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight sluggers Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates will go to war this weekend (Sat., Nov. 15, 2025) inside Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York for UFC 322.
It wasn’t all that long ago that “Rocky” was the undisputed champion and top pound-for-pound pick. Even at his best, however, Edwards was always a bit passive, a bit unwilling to build on his own success. Recent opponents Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady have capitalized on this flaw wonderfully with relentless wrestling attacks, and it’s hard not to wonder if Edwards has lost his fire as a result of these defeats. Prates, conversely, is at the top of his game. The loss to Ian Machado Garry at the start of the year was a definite setback, but the relative newcomer still nearly won via fifth-round knockout. Since then, he’s rebounded with a stunning first-round stoppage of Geoff Neal, putting himself right back in the title hunt.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Edwards vs. Prates Betting Odds
- Leon Edwards victory: +160
- Leon Edwards via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
- Leon Edwards via submission: +2000
- Leon Edwards via decision: +275
- Carlos Prates victory: -192
- Carlos Prates via TKO/KO/DQ: +165
- Carlos Prates via submission: +2000
- Carlos Prates via decision: +215
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Edwards Wins
It’s important not to lose sight of just how good Edwards can be. He’s a sniper at distance, a really tricky long range kicker who interrupts his opponent’s offense with linear kicks, counter punches, and hard elbow strikes. He’s also a damn good wrestler in his own right — the first man to take down Kamaru Usman!
The strategy here is fairly clear. Edwards has to strike with Prates just enough to set up his takedown attempts, because he’ll be able to finish a well-timed entry. Historically, the problem with Prates is more that he’s really hard to keep down. His butt might touch the canvas for a second, but then he pops back up in an instant, and it’s hard to drag lanky fighters with good balance back down.
In the case of Edwards, his answer is back control. On numerous occasions, he’s proven that he’s extremely good at wrapping up the body triangle and locking his opponent down. His game plan in this matchup should be reminiscent of his excellent 2016 victory over Albert Tumenov, whom Edwards strangled after a series of well-timed takedowns and back takes.
How Prates Wins
Prates is a difficult prospect for any Welterweight. Massive and rangy for the division, Prates seems to have the touch of death in both hands, as well as tremendously powerful knees and elbows. Hopefully, he learned a footwork lesson from the Ian Garry loss, because he’ll have to track down a similarly mobile striker here.
Time and time again, we have seen proof that Edwards is not a great boxer. He wants to land a shot or two then escape, as the former champion does not like extended exchanges in the pocket. Prates, conversely, looks far more comfortable stringing together combinations, getting behind his shoulders, and generally throwing hands without pulling back to kicking distance afterward.
In order to create those pocket exchanges, Prates has to methodically work to cut off the cage. He has to keep his jab on Edwards to track him and then block off exits with round kicks. If he can pin Edwards on the fence, he has to be ready to shuck off clinch attempts and answer with power punches. Prates’ ability to throw hard without accidentally falling into the clinch will be tested as much as his footwork, but finding that middle distance will be key in landing the knockout.
Prates vs. Edwards Prediction
As with the UFC 322 opening matchup of Dariush vs. Saint Denis, this feels like a collision of skill and momentum. On one hand, Edwards has a very clear path to victory. He can copy Garry’s game plan of mobile potshotting — that’s one of his greatest strengths! — and find moments to bring this fight down to the canvas, where he’s the much better fighter.
At the same time, Edwards looked half-asleep in his two recent losses. He hasn’t won a fight in almost two years, whereas Prates has become a household name in that same span. Edwards is going to have to dig deep to turn back the clock, and I’m just not convinced he has the juice anymore. Prates, meanwhile, can be trusted to throw hard, and he’s proven himself slippery on the canvas.
Maybe Edwards finds success, but he’s always been prone to lapses, and Prates is the type to punish small mistakes violently.
Prediction: Prates via knockout
