When Arsenal last won the Premier League title, the most popular mobile phone on the market was the Motorola RAZR V3.
It was a pretty good phone, to be fair — but it’s a million miles behind the supercomputers most of us now carry around in our pockets.
Speaking of supercomputers, FootballBlog.co.uk decided to put ours to the test this week to find out whether Arsenal will finally lift the Premier League trophy again this season.
Not only did it give us a clear answer — expressed as a percentage likelihood — it also predicted how many points the Gunners will finish with by simulating the results of their remaining 28 fixtures.
Arsenal top after 10 games — what does that mean historically?
Before we get into the results from our resident robot, let us remind ourselves of the state of play. Arsenal are top of the Premier League table after 10 rounds of fixtures, having taken 25 points from the first available 30.
But what does recent history say about teams that topped the table at this point in a season? Interestingly, in the past 10 seasons only four times has the team leading the pack at this point gone on to finish first.
That suggests only a 40% chance of Arsenal completing the job.
However, in the six seasons over the past decade where a team has come from behind at this stage to win the title, the eventual champions were never more than five points behind the leaders after 10 games. That is very relevant because right now there is no team within five points of the Gunners.
Manchester City, who currently occupy second spot, are six behind Mikel Arteta’s men, while Liverpool, Sunderland and Bournemouth are all seven points off the top.
Last 10 Premier League leaders after 10 games of a season
| Season | Top after 10 games (points) | Champions (points after 10 games) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 | Man City (22) | Leicester (19) |
| 2016/17 | Man City (23) | Chelsea (22) |
| 2017/18 | Man City (28) | Man City (28) |
| 2018/19 | Man City (26) | Man City (26) |
| 2019/20 | Liverpool (28) | Liverpool (28) |
| 2020/21 | Spurs (21) | Man City (18) |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea (25) | Man City (20) |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal (27) | Man City (23) |
| 2023/24 | Spurs (26) | Man City (24) |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool (25) | Liverpool (25) |
What the bookies say about the Premier League title race
Most bookmakers have Arsenal as 1/2 favourites to win the 2025/26 edition of the Premier League. That’s an implied probability of around 67%.
Manchester City are rated as 49/10 shots — an implied chance of almost 17% — while Liverpool are currently priced at 196/25, which equates to just over an 11% likelihood of them winning the title.
Despite their current position in the table, overachievers Sunderland and Bournemouth find themselves behind Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham in the betting.
Latest Premier League title odds (with implied probability)
| Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| Man City | 49/10 | 16.9% |
| Liverpool | 196/25 | 11.3% |
| Chelsea | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Man United | 42/1 | 2.3% |
| Bournemouth | 215/1 | 0.46% |
| Sunderland | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Tottenham | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Will Arsenal win the 2025/26 Premier League title?
According to FootballBlog.co.uk’s AI supercomputer, Arsenal have a 73% likelihood of winning the Premier League this season.
That figure is significantly higher than the implied probability of the latest betting odds.
When calculating which team is most likely to end the 2025/26 season as Premier League champions, our supercomputer considered multiple factors, including current form and historical results, home and away performance, expected-goals data, squad and remaining fixtures.
FootballBlog.co.uk supercomputer predicts Premier League title race
| Club | Chance of winning title |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 73% |
| Man City | 16.5% |
| Liverpool | 6.5% |
| Chelsea | 1% |
| Man United | 1% |
| Tottenham | 0.4% |
| Newcastle | 0.3% |
| Brighton | 0.3% |
| Bournemouth | 0.1% |
| Sunderland | 0.1% |
| Other | 0.8% |
How many points will Arsenal finish the 2025/26 Premier League season with?
Not only did our supercomputer calculate each team’s likelihood of winning the Premier League title, it also predicted the results of every single remaining game.
Based on these simulations, Arsenal are projected to finish the 2025/26 campaign with 90 points — just one more than they earned in the 2023/24 season when they finished second behind Manchester City.
Arsenal’s remaining 2025/26 Premier League results predicted by FootballBlog.co.uk supercomputer
| Date (subject to change) | Fixture | Predicted result | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 8, 2025 | Sunderland (away) | 2–1 win | 3 |
| Sun Nov 23, 2025 | Tottenham (home) | 3–1 win | 3 |
| Sun Nov 30, 2025 | Chelsea (away) | 1–1 draw | 1 |
| Wed Dec 3, 2025 | Brentford (home) | 2–0 win | 3 |
| Sat Dec 6, 2025 | Aston Villa (away) | 1–1 draw | 1 |
| Sat Dec 13, 2025 | Wolves (home) | 3–0 win | 3 |
| Sun Dec 21, 2025 | Everton (away) | 0–0 draw | 1 |
| Sat Dec 27, 2025 | Brighton (home) | 1–1 draw | 1 |
| Tue Dec 30, 2025 | Aston Villa (home) | 2–0 win | 3 |
| Sat Jan 3, 2026 | Bournemouth (away) | 3–1 win | 3 |
| Thu Jan 8, 2026 | Liverpool (home) | 2–2 draw | 1 |
| Sat Jan 17, 2026 | Nottm Forest (away) | 2–0 win | 3 |
| Sat Jan 24, 2026 | Man Utd (home) | 1–0 win | 3 |
| Sat Jan 31, 2026 | Leeds (away) | 2–1 win | 3 |
| Sat Feb 7, 2026 | Sunderland (home) | 3–0 win | 3 |
| Wed Feb 11, 2026 | Brentford (away) | 1–1 draw | 1 |
| Sat Feb 21, 2026 | Tottenham (away) | 2–2 draw | 1 |
| Sat Feb 28, 2026 | Chelsea (home) | 2–1 win | 3 |
| Wed Mar 4, 2026 | Brighton (away) | 2–0 win | 3 |
| Sat Mar 14, 2026 | Everton (home) | 3–0 win | 3 |
| Sat Mar 21, 2026 | Wolves (away) | 2–0 win | 3 |
| Sat Apr 11, 2026 | Bournemouth (home) | 3–1 win | 3 |
| Sat Apr 18, 2026 | Man City (away) | 1–2 loss | 0 |
| Sat Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle (home) | 2–0 win | 3 |
| Sat May 2, 2026 | Fulham (home) | 3–0 win | 3 |
| Sat May 9, 2026 | West Ham (away) | 1–1 draw | 1 |
| Sun May 17, 2026 | Burnley (home) | 2–0 win | 3 |
| Sun May 24, 2026 | Crystal Palace (away) | 2–1 win | 3 |
Our supercomputer also predicted the remaining fixtures of Manchester City and Liverpool. Based on those simulations, it estimates that City will finish second on 84 points, ahead of Liverpool in third on 81.
But while supercomputer predictions can be very accurate at times, these results will likely be of little interest to Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta. Arteta recently said when asked for his thoughts on Arsenal being title favourites: “The only thing that I embrace is when I see the team, the energy, the temperature, the commitment and the quality that they can deliver, that it gives me that conviction that we can go all the way.
“But that’s it, that’s just a feeling, then the next day you have to prove it, the next training session you have to prove it and nothing else and we cannot be busy thinking about those topics.”
Didi Hamann backs Mikel Arteta to win Premier League or Champions League with Arsenal
As part of an exclusive interview with FootballBlog.co.uk earlier this week, Didi Hamann was asked whether he fancied Arsenal to win major silverware this season and if failure to do so would mean Mikel Arteta might never be considered an elite manager.
Former Liverpool and Manchester City midfielder Hamann replied: “He’s been there for four or five years now. I think at some stage, because he did spend an awful lot of money, he will come under pressure. Other sides have spent big, but they had some near misses and I felt in the last two or three years, that the door was open for them to win the Premier League. They didn’t. They are favourites now, and they look in a very strong position.
“I think what sets them apart is their defence. That wins you titles. In the Champions League, I’ve got to say, even though they did okay, I was a bit disappointed. Last season I think they were a bit unfortunate to lose to PSG. But I think the year before, sometimes I feel they lacked belief to do well in the Champions League. If they stop that, if they change that, I think they could be a force or will be a force in the Champions League as well.
“Will it be a blow to his reputation if they miss out again? Well, I’m not sure it’s a blow to finish second, but obviously if you finish second too often, it’s no good either. So I think, I’d say in the next couple of seasons, he’s probably gonna win one of the two competitions.”
