Luque Vs. Holland Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight sluggers Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland will go to war this weekend (Sat., June 7, 2025) inside Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., at UFC 316.

Let me start with an absolutely shocking stat: Luque is just 33 years old. It’s hard to believe. Not only has the Brazilian been on UFC’s roster for a decade, but he’s already experienced an incredible rise (winning 10 of 11 over a four-year period) and dramatic fall, the latter of which included a brain bleed that could have ended his career … or his life. Somehow, Luque has rebounded from the latter, winning two of his last three to prove he still has something left to offer the 170-pound division.

Holland, despite a lengthy UFC career of his own, is a year younger than Luque. He looked sharp in his last outing, a return to 170-pounds that saw him knock around Gunnar Nelson. It still feels like “Trailblazer” hasn’t fully capitalized on his potential, though it gets a little harder to believe it all comes together every year that goes by.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Luque vs. Holland Betting Odds

Vicente Luque victory: +205
Vicente Luque via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Vicente Luque via submission: TBD
Vicente Luque via decision: TBD
Kevin Holland victory: -250
Kevin Holland via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Kevin Holland via submission: TBD
Kevin Holland via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Luque Wins

Luque is one of the great brawlers of the current era. Recent struggles aside, the Brazilian is known for a cast iron chin and remarkable timing, a perfect combination to press opponents and then counter their offense in brutal fashion.

The key here is going to be getting inside the long punches of Kevin Holland, who has one of the meanest one-two combinations in the business. Luque does not want to end up stuck on the end of those punches, especially since his chin probably can’t hold up to many of them at this stage of the game.

Proactive head movement can help. Luque’s head needs to be on a swivel before Holland starts punching. He has to a be a difficult target, lest he end up a sitting duck. If he can make Holland miss a bit, Luque is a good enough striker to close distance a few inches and start creating his own opportunities. If he can get Holland’s back to the fence, all that lankiness will suddenly be a disadvantage when the close quarters punches start flying.

How Holland Wins

Holland is an interesting kickboxer with underrated jiu-jitsu and defensive wrestling. He uses side kicks to lengthen his usual height and reach advantage further, later using step up fakes to ram straight punches down the middle. In addition, he’s downright nasty from the clinch with knees and elbows.

A bit of mobility will go a long way here against the historically flat-footed Luque. In a one-to-one exchange of power shots, I would favor Holland’s cement jawline overall, but there’s no need to trade punches at such a clip. Instead, Holland should be moving laterally and forcing Luque to eat shots for even a chance at trading one-for-one.

Holland does have to be careful with his jab here, as Luque is quite good at countering the jab with a looping right hand or slip inside and left hook. Jabbing the body and feinting with his lead shoulder more often are good possible solutions, but I’d also like to see Holland initiate with some right hand leads and try to catch Luque cold while the Brazilian advances.

Luque vs. Holland Prediction

In 2021, this was an easy Luque pick. Nowadays, it would be downright silly to pick him against a puncher like Holland. The first knockout loss of his career and all the damage that came with it have changed his career, and the one time he fought a real power puncher since returning in Joaquin Buckley, “The Silent Assassin” looked downright uncomfortable taking those shots.

Holland isn’t a perfect fighter, but he’s a veteran with bricks in his fists and chin alike. He can take a shot and give one back if needed, and I’m no longer confident we can say the same about Luque.

Until Luque successfully returns to his previous aggressive ways against a foe as dangerous as “Big Mouth,” it’s hard to bet on it.

Prediction: Holland via decision

LIVE! Watch UFC 316 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

CHAMPIONSHIP DOUBLE-DIP! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., June 7, 2025, with a championship doubleheader headlining UFC 316 from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. In UFC 316’s PPV main event, Bantamweight roost-ruler, Merab Dvalishvili, defends his title against former division champion, Sean O’Malley, in a highly-anticipated five-round rematch. UFC 316’s PPV co-main event features women’s Bantamweight titleholder, Julianna Pena, facing off against two-time Olympic gold medalist, Kayla Harrison, in a thrilling five-round clash. UFC 316 will also showcase a 135-pound showdown between Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista, as well as a Welterweight bout pitting Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland and much more! UFC 316’s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 8 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 316 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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